(Risk and) Decision Analysis in Projects

by John Schuyler, 1997, Project Management Institute

What are the characteristics of successful managers? Surveys consistently show decision-making ability at or near the top of the lists. Perhaps no management activity is more important. Surprisingly, little training investment attends to developing this important skill. In Decision Analysis in Projects, Schuyler presents the approach and principal techniques of decision analysis to help the reader realize faster, more confident, and better decisions.

Decision Analysis in Projects is based on the author's popular project management tutorial series published in the Project Management Institute's PM Network. The techniques described in the book are straightforward once you know about them. The methodology is proven and accessible. And the techniques are applicable to all types of project decisions and valuations. With practice, decision analysis is easily integrated into the professional's problem-solving approach.

Making good decisions over the long term increases the probability of meeting your objectives. Those using decision analysis can sleep well at night knowing that they have made the best possible choices under the circumstances. Reading Decision Analysis in Projects is your first best choice.

CONTENTS:

1. Expected Value - The Cornerstone: Representing a probability distribution as an unbiased, single value
2. Optimal Decision Policy: Appraising value or cost-a consistent approach suited to all decision types
3. Decision Trees: Graphical decision model and expected value calculation technique
4. Value of Information: Evaluating an alternative to acquire additional information
5. Monte Carlo Simulation: An alternative, popular technique for calculating expected values and outcome probability distributions
6. Other Probabilistic Techniques: Established and new probability techniques suited to simple situations
7. Modeling Techniques Part I: Project and cash flow projections, modeling tools
8. Modeling Techniques Part II: Sensitivity analysis, correlation, dynamic models
9. Judgments and Biases: Encoding expert judgments about risks and uncertainties
10. Utility and Multi-Criteria Decisions: Decisions involving objectives other than maximizing monetary value
11. Stochastic Variance: Recognizing that decision analysis provides improved accuracy in probabilistic calculations
12. Summary and Recommendations: Features and benefits of decision analysis; quick-and-dirty analysis; management issues.

ISBN 1-880410-39-7, 144 pages. Published in 1996/97 by Project Management Institute.

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Also available from:

Also available:  Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration by Paul D. Newendorp

Errata for the first printing (corrected in the 1998 2nd printing)

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