Advanced Decision Analysis
with Portfolio and Project Modeling (ADA)
Prerequisites

Persons planning to register for ADA should have attended Petroleum Risks and Decision Analysis (PRD) and have learned most concepts. Alternatively, people are invited to attend ADA with equivalent experience.

We expect participants in ADA to come with the following background:

• Setting up and solving decision tree diagrams
• Concepts of Monte Carlo simulation, including Latin hypercube sampling
• Understanding basic statistics: mean, median, mode, variance and standard deviation
• Present value calculation
• Familiarity with common decision criteria, especially: NPV, IRR and EMV
• Basic competence with Microsoft® Excel in a Windows environment. The participant should be very confident in using IF statements.
• The four fundamental probability rules: complement, addition, multiplication, and Bayes' rules
• Basic understanding of these dimensions of decision policy: objective, time value, and risk aversion.

Additionally, participants will be aided with any prior experience in economic evaluation, such as by attending either Basic Petroleum Economics (either short or expanded versions) or Economics of Worldwide Petroleum Exploration taught by Richard Seba.

People coming to ADA prepared with this knowledge will find the course more enjoyable and rewarding (as will their colleagues). If you are unsure about your knowledge level, we suggest that you complete the self-assessment (and fun!) Pre-ADA Self-Assessment Quiz.

Strong English skills are important for this class.  Excel, the decision analysis software and Windows operating system will be in English.

Depending upon interest, persons attending PRD and ADA in successive weeks can meet with the instructor during the weekend between courses for review and answering questions.