BOOKS ABOUT PLANNING AND EVALUATION TECHNOLOGY

John Schuyler

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Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Second Edition

by John Schuyler, June, 2001
Project Management Institute, Upper Darby, PA

  (2nd edition cover shown at right)

What are the characteristics of successful managers? Surveys consistently show decision-making ability at or near the top of the lists. Perhaps no management activity is more important. Surprisingly, little training investment attends to developing this important skill. In Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Schuyler presents the approach and principal techniques of decision analysis to help the reader realize faster, more confident, and better decisions.

Decision Analysis in Projects is based on the author's popular project management tutorial series published in the Project Management Institute's PM Network. The techniques described in the book are straightforward once you know about them. The methodology is proven and accessible. And the techniques are applicable to all types of project decisions and valuations. With practice, decision analysis is easily integrated into the professional's problem-solving approach.

Making good decisions over the long term increases the probability of meeting your objectives. Those using decision analysis can sleep well at night knowing that they have made the best possible choices under the circumstances. Reading Decision Analysis in Projects is your first best choice.

CONTENTS
PART I—RISK AND DECISION ANALYSIS

1. Risk and Decision Analysis: decision problems; risk and uncertainty; probability and frequency distributions; expected value
2. Decision Analysis Process: ten-step process; who does all the work?
3. Decision Policy: why intuition is a poor method; preferences; objectives; time value; risk attitude
4. Utility and Multi-Criteria Decisions: conservative risk policy; translating non-monetary criteria; multiple criteria value function
5. Decision Trees: node types; solving trees; wastewater plant example; decision tree software
6. Value of Information: valuing an alternative to acquire additional information; Bayes' rule; killing projects in time
7. Monte Carlo Simulation: inputs as distributions; simulation process; simulation software; comparing simulation to decision trees

8. Project Risk Management—by the Numbers: PMBOK® Guide sections related to risk management; quick-and-dirty decisions; risk management plan; comparison with the PMBOK® Guide

PART II—MODELS AND INPUTS

9. Modeling Techniques: forecasts from models; deterministic models; CPM, PERT and PDM; modeling process and tools; sensitivity analysis; dynamic simulation models
10. Probability Distribution Types: discrete vs. continuous; binary risk; features of popular distributions
11. Judgments and Biases: subjective and objective probability; eliciting judgments; overconfidence; biases; belief and perception errors; improving evaluations
12. Relating Risks: correlation; sources of correlation; ways to represent correlation; human factors
13. Stochastic Variance: correction to base case by means of probabilistic modeling and calculations; merge bias; variance report example; forecasts are usually wrong

PART III—SPECIAL TOPICS

14. Exploiting the Best of Critical Chain and Monte Carlo Simulation: theory of constraints, critical chain project management (CCPM); comparing CCPM to decision analysis with Monte Carlo simulation; using the best of both approaches
15. Optimizing Project Plan Decisions: example project model; optimizing activity planned starts; optimization experience; simplifying project decisions
16. Probability Rules: Venn diagrams; Boolean algebra; complement rule; addition rule; multiplication rule; independence; Bayes' rule
17. Expert Systems in Project Management: smart computers; knowledge systems; representing knowledge; neural networks; fuzzy logic

    Appendix A—Summary of Methods
    Appendix B—Decision Analysis Software

ISBN 1-880410-28-1, 259 pages, softcover
June 2001, published by Project Management Institute.
List price US$34.95.  PMI members get a discount. 
Available from us for $27.96 plus $2 handling plus postage from:

    Planning Press™
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Also available from:

Also available:  Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 2nd edition by Paul Newendorp and John Schuyler (2000)

Errata for the first printing (corrected in the 1998 2nd printing)
Errata and follow-on notes for the 2nd edition

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