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for Business Modeling and Monte Carlo Simulation

"Everything that is wrong with the common spreadsheet is fixed in Analytica..." --PC Week

Decisioneering no longer offers Analytica.  Contact Lumina Systems directly at 408-354-1841

Lumina Decision Systems, Inc. and Decisioneering, Inc. have released Analytica 1.1 for Windows®. Decisioneering is the creator of the Crystal Ball® add-in program for Excel and 1-2-3®.

Analytica is a visual modeling tool. Variables and links are mapped as the model is constructed. This influence diagram view is convenient for understanding and explaining the model. Analytica is the best tool of any I have used with respect to making models self-documenting.

"Intelligent arrays let you add or retract dimensions such as time, products, departments and alternative plans without changing the model's structure."

Analytica features Monte Carlo simulation. The following continuous distributions can be incorporated into a model: Beta, Cumulative Distribution (from points), Fractiles (histogram), Lognormal, Normal, Probdist (from points), Triangle, Uniform. Any of these can be truncated at low or high limits.

Discrete distributions include: ProbTable (from points), Bernoulli, Certain (temporary fixed value), Chancedist (table). A conditional table of deterministic probabilities is available. This could be used for revising probabilities based upon new information (i.e., for value of information problems).

In reviewing the program, what I miss most is a spreadsheet-like view. I also want this tool to have the correlation functionality of Crystal Ball; at present, Analytica requires one to model the dependency relationships. I expect that Decisioneering and Lumina Decision Systems will be aggressively adding new functionality as they receive feedback from users.

This program will be a candidate for the serious analyst. Although the 446+ page manual is excellent, new users will face a serious --- but interesting --- learning effort.

—John Schuyler, July 1997. Rev. 23-Aug-97, Aug 98

Copyright © 1997 by John R. Schuyler. All rights reserved. Permission to copy with reproduction of this notice.