Available Training Topics

Consulting assistance includes explaining the concepts as we go along.

Introduction to decision analysis
Popular decision criteria and decision policy
Expressing risk policy as a utility function
Expected value (EV) concept and decision Rule (usually focusing on Expected monetary value)
Decision tree design and calculations
Probabilities and probability distributions
Venn diagrams
Three basic probability rules
Common misconceptions about probability
Bayes' rule and revising probabilities based upon new, imperfect information
Extending traditional decision analysis with real options analysis
Portfolio management and optimization; corporate planning, and company modeling; estimating the optimizer's curse bias
Multi-criteria decision making
Advanced decision modeling
Probabilistic reserves
Value of imperfect information (e.g., survey, pilot process)
Value of perfect information and control; value of flexibility
Monte Carlo simulation and sampling methods; stopping rules
Strengths and weaknesses of Monte Carlo simulation vs. decision trees
Competitive bidding; modeling; winner's curse effect
Useful modeling tools and processes, including influence diagrams
Software tools for decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation
Eliciting judgments about uncertainty
Recognizing and dealing with biases
Guidelines for good evaluation practice and issues
Working with economists, analysts, subject matter experts, and decision makers
Management concerns and issues discussion
Interpreting and using the results of a decision analysis from a management perspective
LOTS OF EXERCISES for participants to experience the concepts and decision analysis process

We can (and prefer to) incorporate company examples and situations into the discussions.

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