"A good science and engineering decision is a good business decision."

Decision Precision training and consulting

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Available Training Topics

Consulting assistance includes explaining the concepts as we go along.

  • Introduction to decision analysis
  • Popular decision criteria and decision policy
  • Expressing risk policy as a utility function
  • Expected value (EV) concept and decision Rule (usually focusing on Expected monetary value)
  • Decision tree design and calculations
  • Probabilities and probability distributions
  • Venn diagrams
  • Three basic probability rules
  • Common misconceptions about probability
  • Bayes' rule and revising probabilities based upon new, imperfect information
  • Extending traditional decision analysis with real options analysis
  • Portfolio management and optimization; corporate planning, and company modeling; estimating the optimizer's curse bias
  • Multi-criteria decision making
  • Advanced decision modeling
  • Probabilistic reserves
  • Value of imperfect information (e.g., survey, pilot process)
  • Value of perfect information and control; value of flexibility
  • Monte Carlo simulation and sampling methods; stopping rules
  • Strengths and weaknesses of Monte Carlo simulation vs. decision trees
  • Competitive bidding; modeling; winner's curse effect
  • Useful modeling tools and processes, including influence diagrams
  • Software tools for decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation
  • Eliciting judgments about uncertainty
  • Recognizing and dealing with biases
  • Guidelines for good evaluation practice and issues
  • Working with economists, analysts, subject matter experts, and decision makers
  • Management concerns and issues discussion
  • Interpreting and using the results of a decision analysis from a management perspective
  • LOTS OF EXERCISES for participants to experience the concepts and decision analysis process

    We can (and prefer to) incorporate company examples and situations into the discussions.

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