Go to the Prior Tip Neural
Go to the Next Tip The Ostrich Factor: Our Population Myopia
Return to MaxValue Home Page
Three well-known experts in problem-solving have written this guide to better decision-making. Their process is prescriptive: helpful techniques even if not as rigorous as some readers may want.
Making trade-offs is a common issue. The authors serve up the "even-swap method." This is an extension of Ben Franklin's advice of more than 200 years ago:
Practical Decisions extends this technique for multiple choices. More advanced scoring techniques, including risk aversion as a "desirability curve," are included.
The authors Keeney and Raiffa are well-known in multi-criteria decision making. I don't recall any mention of net present value (NPV) or expected monetary value (EMV) in the book. Decision trees are described with examples; Monte Carlo simulation is not.
Smart Choices is an excellent introduction to decision-making. I recommend that persons interested in business decisions follow this with by reading more sophisticated books and articles. More-advanced persons can also benefit from some the techniques suggested by these very experienced consultants.
Here is the Contents:
**Creating and having better alternatives is more important than good decision-making.
Instead of an index, they provide "A Roadmap to Smart Choices." I would have appreciated an index also.
It's an inexpensive and easy-to-read book, with some good ideas. I recommend it.
Interview with the authors
John Schuyler, April 1999, revised May 1999
Copyright © 1999 by John R. Schuyler. All rights reserved. Permission to copy with reproduction of this notice.